The upcoming autonomous elections in Spain have stirred considerable anxiety within the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE). These elections, pivotal for regional governance, are often seen as a barometer for national political sentiment. The stakes are high for PSOE, a party with deep historical roots in Spain’s political landscape. The autonomous elections could signal broader trends ahead of the national elections, making the party’s performance in these regional contests critically important.
The fear of losing ground to opposition parties, particularly amid rising challenges from both the left and right, has intensified the sense of urgency within PSOE. As the party grapples with internal divisions and external pressures, the autonomous elections represent a test of political strength and reflect its ability to resonate with voters across Spain’s diverse regions.
Panic in PSOE federations ahead of the next electoral cycle: “The pact with ERC is very costly”
The internal dynamics of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) are deeply intertwined with its territorial federations. The regional leaders, often called “barons,” play a significant role in shaping the party’s political direction. However, since assuming leadership, General Secretary Pedro Sánchez has implemented a top-down approach, effectively curbing the influence of these regional branches. However, the recent fiscal pact between the Spanish government and the Catalan party ERC has reawakened and alarmed these regional leaders due to its potential repercussions.
Sources within various PSOE federations have expressed a growing sense of fear and uncertainty. Javier Lambán, the party leader in Aragón and former president, recently voiced this anxiety, stating, “The pact in Catalonia is terrifying. I fear that the disastrous result of 2023 will seem mild compared to what’s coming in 2027.” The PSOE is gripped by panic, with many believing it will be nearly impossible to regain the territorial power lost in the 2023 elections.
In May 2023, the PSOE suffered significant losses, relinquishing control of seven regional governments and narrowly holding onto Castilla-La Mancha, Asturias, and Navarra. Despite this setback, Pedro Sánchez rallied progressive voters just two months later by invoking fears of the far-right. Yet, there is growing concern within the party that the already diminished number of regional and municipal governments under its control could shrink even further.
A PSOE baron, speaking to Vozpópuli, strikes a more measured tone, acknowledging that there is still considerable time before 2027 and that in politics, a year can feel like an eternity. Nevertheless, he remains concerned about the stakes involved, noting that “the issue is delicate and multifaceted, with significant potential costs. There is still a long way to go over the next three years.”
The agreement between Moncloa and the PSC, which removes Catalonia from the common fund, grants the region a Treasury to collect 100% of its taxes, and leaves unclear how much of that revenue will return to the common fund, has deeply unsettled the party’s federations. They are anxiously awaiting more details from the new president on the deal that has elevated him to the top of Sant Jaume Square, highlighting their need for more information and their role in the party’s internal dynamics.
A historic figure within the PSOE once remarked that a territorial debate within the party cannot unfold without conflict. This has been evident in the past week, with up to six regional leaders urging the powerful general secretary to convene a territorial conclave to establish a unified stance on regional financing. Beyond the leader’s inner circle, no one in the PSOE has access to the agreement’s details, as Ferraz has allowed ERC to take the lead, underscoring the party’s limited influence in the current situation and the power dynamics within the PSOE.
Compounding this situation is the lack of introspection regarding the party’s losses in recent regional elections, with the exceptions of Catalonia and, to a lesser extent, the Basque Country. For some time, critical voices within Ferraz have expressed concerns about the perceived concession of the socialists to regionalist and pro-independence parties, which have been absorbing much of the left-wing vote. A source within the party’s executive has acknowledged awareness of this trend.
Members of the Socialist government point out that Spain’s plurinational reality necessitates a regionalist discourse that aligns with territorial identities. However, this approach also creates openings through which messages from regionalist and pro-independence parties can resonate. According to sources, these internal critics reflect positions driven by the interests of their respective territories, where another form of nationalism—the Spanish one—also plays a role.
This sentiment reflects a pointed critique of some more defiant socialist leaders. They perceive a need for a cohesive national project, seeing the party entangled in a troubling web of actions jeopardizing the constitutional framework established in 1978. The recent agreement in Catalonia is the latest example of this drift. Despite the celebrations surrounding Salvador Illa’s inauguration, many socialists are deeply unsettled by recent regional developments.
A growing number of PSOE members are increasingly alienated from their party. The continued reliance on Carles Puigdemont for executive power, particularly after his latest maneuver in Barcelona, has sparked significant outrage among the socialists. The former Catalan president’s second escape has only deepened the discontent within the party.
The belief is spreading that this legislature could be a real ordeal for the PSOE. Not because Puigdemont is expected to bring down Pedro Sánchez with a vote of no confidence—an unlikely scenario before the amnesty is fully secured—but because Junts will likely obstruct any legislative effort. “Junts will blow everything up,” a prominent socialist with an institutional role remarked.
As his actions in Barcelona have demonstrated, the chaos centers around the former Catalan president. Given this situation, the PSOE is considering the possibility that the only way out of the legislative impasse might be a new general election. However, Moncloa remains confident that it can avoid a return to the polls, with Sánchez prepared to extend the Budget again if necessary.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the PSOE panicking about the autonomous elections?
The panic stems from fears of losing further regional influence after significant losses in the 2023 elections. The party’s regional leaders are particularly concerned about the potential impact of the recent fiscal pact between the government and ERC in Catalonia, which many see as jeopardizing the PSOE’s traditional strongholds.
What is the significance of the fiscal pact between the Spanish government and ERC?
The budgetary pact removes Catalonia from the common fund, allows the region to establish its own Treasury, and grants it control over 100% of its tax revenues. This has raised concerns within the PSOE about breaking the principle of territorial solidarity, as it remains to be seen how much of Catalonia’s tax revenue will be redistributed to other regions.
How have PSOE’s regional leaders, or barons, reacted to the recent political developments?
PSOE’s regional leaders have expressed fear and uncertainty regarding the party’s future. While some acknowledge that there is still time before the next elections in 2027, many are concerned that the recent agreements could further erode the party’s regional power base, making it difficult to recover from the losses suffered in 2023.
What are the potential consequences of the current situation for the PSOE?
The PSOE may further diminish its control over regional and municipal governments. The ongoing reliance on support from regionalist and pro-independence parties like Junts, particularly in the context of Catalonia, has created internal tensions. This has led to fears that the legislature may become increasingly difficult to manage, potentially leading to early elections.
What internal challenges is the PSOE facing due to the agreement in Catalonia?
The deal has exacerbated internal divisions within the PSOE, with many members feeling disconnected from the party’s current direction. There is a growing sentiment that the party’s actions could threaten the constitutional framework’s stability and undermine its unity, especially as it continues to rely on controversial alliances for political survival.
How does the PSOE leadership plan to address these challenges?
The PSOE leadership, particularly Pedro Sánchez, is attempting to maintain stability by avoiding a return to the polls and extending the Budget if necessary. However, the leadership is also facing increasing pressure from regional leaders to establish a common position on regional financing and address the growing concerns within the party.
What role does Carles Puigdemont play in the current political landscape?
The former Catalan president remains a central figure in the political turmoil surrounding the PSOE. His actions and the influence of Junts, the party he leads, are seen as significant obstacles to the PSOE’s legislative agenda, with many socialists fearing that Junts will disrupt any efforts to pass laws or advance projects.
Conclusion
The panic surrounding the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party) during the autonomy elections reflects the intense political atmosphere and uncertainty about the party’s performance across various regions. The fear of losing key areas and the potential rise of opposition parties like the PP (People’s Party) has contributed to this anxiety. The outcome of these elections will not only influence regional governance but also set the stage for future national elections, shaping Spain’s political landscape. The PSOE’s ability to navigate this challenging period will be crucial for maintaining its influence and addressing the concerns of its voter base.
